Sunday, June 01, 2008

Delegate Watch - WTF?!?!?

A lot happened this weekend. Let's review.

On Friday, Obama needed 41 delegate votes to clinch the nomination; Clinton needed 244. That was before Michigan and Florida were settled.

On Saturday, Michigan and Florida were settled by the Rules and Bylaws Committee. There's a million stories about what happened, so go read one of those if you want details. The long and the short of it is that Obama picked up a total of 32 delegates in Michigan, including superdelegates who have already committed, and 36 in Florida. Clinton picked up 38 in Michigan, including superdelegates, and 56.5 in Florida. The magic number of total delegates moved to 2118, now that Michigan and Florida's delegates are reinstated.

Please note that the delegate decision was made not by the Supreme Court or by Obama's campaign, but by the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the Democratic National Committee. Both Obama and Clinton had supporters on that committee. So I don't want to hear a lot of whining about how Obama stole delegates or how this was unfair and undemocratic. There was a fair hearing, and a decision was made. In America, we honor the people who make the rules and we stand by the rulings.

After Saturday's decision on MI and FL, Obama needed 64 delegates to reach the number of delegates needed, while Clinton needed 240.5.

Supes: Obama appears to have picked up two: Maine add-on Gwethalyn Phillips and Nevada DNC member Yvonne Gates. Al Wynn, an Obama supe, resigned his seat. So Obama wins two, loses one delegate, and the total number of delegates needed drops by one to 2117.

Puerto Rico: Clinton won 68-32%. She gets 38, he gets 17.

The count: Obama has 2071 delegates. Clinton has 1914.5.

Obama needs 46 to clinch. Clinton needs 202.5 delegates to win the nomination.

There are 234 delegates not yet pledged. Clinton would need to get 86% of those delegates in order to win.

Obama needs less than 20% in order to win.

Montana and South Dakota, the two remaining primary states, have a grand total of 31 delegates between them. If Hillary Clinton sweeps the states and wins every single one of the remaining primary delegates, she would still need to garner over 80% of the 203 superdelegates remaining. She can sweep both states and the math only changes infinitesimally.

Got all that?

(I hope this has been helpful to someone. If nothing else, it's helped me to keep all the numbers straight. I'll be so relieved once Obama hits the final number and he can officially claim victory.)

1 comment:

nancy said...

It helped me a ton - thanks!!